Poll: Dist. 1 GOP candidate edges Democratic incumbent

Posted at: 07/26/2010 6:50 PM | Updated at: 07/27/2010 8:45 AM
By: Stuart Dyson, Eyewitness News 4

Eyewitness News 4’s exclusive Survey USA poll on the congressional race in New Mexico’s first district is a real shocker. It shows Republican challenger Jon Barela with a lead over incumbent Democratic congressman Martin Heinrich, 51% to 45% - with only 4% of the voters undecided.

Survey USA polled 559 likely voters from July 22-25, with a margin of error of 4.2%. Barela’s lead exceeds the margin of error and he is also over the “magic” 50% line that pollsters like to talk about.

“Washington is seriously off track, and I believe Washington is seriously out of touch with the average New Mexico family,” said Barela.

“This far-left drift in Mr. Heinrich’s voting record-- 97% of the time with Nancy Pelosi—has led to higher taxes, a higher deficit, and certainly higher unemployment,” Barela continued.

Survey USA shows Barela leading in all age groups, but Heinrich with a slight lead among women voters, with 50% to Barela’s 47%. Barela is running much stronger among male voters, 56% to Heinrich’s 39%.

Hispanic voters tend to favor the Anglo candidate, Heinrich, by 54% to Barela’s 41%. But Barela, a Hispanic, turns the tables by running well ahead of Heinrich among Anglo voters, 55% to 41%.

“I think this poll does show us there’s an anti-incumbent feeling out there,” said political blogger Joe Monahan. “Nobody really knows Jon Barela. He’s done no paid TV, limited campaigning, never run for a major office. How can he be ahead of Martin Heinrich, people will ask. Well, people may be searching around for an alternative.”

Heinrich certainly has an alternative view of the poll. His campaign released their own commissioned poll to Eyewitness News 4, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from July 8-13. It shows Heinrich with a comfortable 12 point lead over Barela, 53% to 41%.

The Survey USA poll is independent, conducted for Eyewitness News 4, and not associated with any campaign.

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