Created: April 27, 2020 06:25 PM
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — UNM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research if finalizing an economic forecast for New Mexico. The forecast will help guide lawmakers to rework the state budget in a special session this summer after oil prices dropped to historic lows.
“We've lost three-quarters of a good portion of state revenues—those are very big dollars when the state is actually having to assume greater costs,” said Jeffrey Mitchell, director of UNM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Mitchell said barring a second resurgence of the virus, he expects a return to business.
“We should be back largely at work by the end of the year, but what going back to work looks like, what shopping looks like, what going out looks like will be vastly different than what we saw a month ago,” he said.
The business data won’t be able to predict how the public will behave and warns of economic fallout should business resume too early.
“There's no question that the stay-at-home order hurts businesses, but at the same time there's a very significant risk. I think what could even be more difficult is if we go back to work too early. This isn't just a public health issue, this is from an economic point of view. If you go back and it doesn't work out and people start getting sick again and you have to go through a second or third round of shutdowns, that significantly prolongs the crisis,” Mitchell said.
To view coronavirus data from the UNM BBER, click here.
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