Is New Mexico a battleground state?

Michael Rocca, a political science associate professor at UNM, said he doesn't believe New Mexico is currently a battlground state.

“With about a week to go, I think it’s pretty comfortable to say New Mexico is not a battleground state in 2020,” Rocca said. “Vice President Biden, according to most polls, carries a double-digit lead going into Tuesday. A double-digit lead is significant because it is outside the margin of error, which is really important.”

Battleground states are defined by how close the candidates are running ahead of Election Day.

Candidates typically visit battleground states repeatedly over the course of an election cycle. Neither Biden nor Trump has visited New Mexico in over a year.

“Which sends the clear signal that they are not treating it as a battleground state,” Rocca said.
 
The lack of visits, however, doesn't mean they aren't paying attention to the state, Rocca said.

“We should not take this as a signal that they don't care about New Mexico, rather it's a signal that both are treating this as a safe state, as a state that's probably going to go blue,” Rocca said. “The rationale is pretty simple here. Why would you spend valuable resources, scarce resources on a state that seems to be leaning pretty securely one direction? When that money and that time can be spent in other states that are classic swing states, classic battleground states”

Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio are among the states the candidates are focusing on.

Rocca said even nearby states like Nevada and Arizona could be closer than ever.

“Now, if President Trump would have campaigned here early on and spent a lot of resources here in the state, there's a chance that that that margin that Vice President Biden is currently holding would have dropped below 10, which might have created a need and incentive for Vice President Biden, or some of his designees to come and represent his campaign here in New Mexico," Rocca said. "But, you know, the polling suggests such a wide margin right now that I don't think there's anything that President Trump or the national Republican Party could have done to make this any tighter.”

George Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to win New Mexico in 2000.