LANL providing COVID-19 modeling for New Mexico | KOB 4

LANL providing COVID-19 modeling for New Mexico

Brittany Costello
Created: April 23, 2020 10:48 PM

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.- Los Alamos National Lab is instrumental in creating COVID-19 modeling for the state.

"Basically what we do is we learn the trends from cases and deaths, and we forecast forward based on some underlying assumptions based on how we know diseases spread," said Carrie Manore.

Manore is one of several LANL employees who work on the projections.

In New Mexico right now, what were seeing is a steadily decreasing growth rate which is good," Manore said. "That's a good thing. So, initially we were seeing a pretty high growth rate in our cases per day and that's steadily going down. It's still positive so were still expecting to see more cases [in the] next four to six weeks for sure.

The projections show 98 deaths in New Mexico by April 29. The number of deaths grows to 220 in the following six weeks.

Manore said their modeling doesn't explicitly include social distancing. However, she said they do include intervention measures, such as like limiting businesses and ordering people to stay home.

"The future projections of slow growth depend on the situation staying as it is right now," she said. "So if we released interventions than we would expect something probably something would change in terms of growth rate."

Manore says, according to the data, there's a 57% chance New Mexico has already seen its peak, or the greatest number of new cases. 

However, if New Mexico hasn't seen its peak, she expects it to happen within the next few weeks.

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