ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — With warm weather and very little snow so far this winter in New Mexico, a top hydrologist is issuing a clear warning about how wildfire season could be.

“We are in trouble. I do not want to sugar coat that,” said Dr. Andrew Mangham, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque.

Mangham said 20% of the snowpack sites they measure are at record lows for this time in the season. A lack of adequate snowpack, combined with dry brush can cause fires to spread quickly with the wind.

“What you got is no snow, absolutely bone dry conditions and now we are cranking up the heat and the winds across the state,” he said. “The fuels that we have, luckily they are dormant, but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t out there to burn.”

With such a small snowpack and warmer temperatures melting what is there, rivers, like the Rio Grande, could see an earlier rise than usual. However, Mangham said he isn’t too worried about snowmelt flooding because there isn’t enough snow to melt and cause a problem.

What that could mean is the Rio Grande could dry up, as it did in 2023.

“There is a pretty good chance, this summer, that we are going to see the Rio Grande run dry,” he said.

Mangham emphasized that now is a perfect time to wildfire-proof your home. That means getting rid of any unnecessary brush near your property, if you can.

Winter still isn’t over and snow is still very likely, which would help ease wildfire risks in New Mexico.

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