Buckle up, New Mexico: 4 Investigates poll shows neck-and-neck for Herrell, Vasquez

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We’re more than a year away from the 2024 elections, but it’s a certainty that the eyes of the nation will be on New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.

Just 1,300 or so votes separated Democratic winner Gabe Vasquez from Republican Yvette Herrell – and they’re both back for more.

After surveying more than 500 likely voters in CD2, our exclusive poll shows the upcoming election is likely to be just as close as the last election. Herrell leads Vasquez by a single percentage point, 46% to 45%.

9% said they were undecided – a number that’s low this early in an election cycle.

SurveyUSA pollster Ken Alper says voters have a good idea of what to expect from Herrell and Vasquez.

“They’re known quantities,” Alpher said. “It’s absolutely possible that something could happen, there could be a huge story, somebody could flub a debate, or anything that could make a huge difference.”


Vasquez has a challenge. He’s the incumbent, but hasn’t yet served a full year in Congress, where it’s been hard to make an impact with Republicans controlling the flow of legislation. So how do likely voters see him?

As a freshman Democratic congressman in a newly drawn district, a third of voters have a favorable impression of Vasquez. With a 28% unfavorable impression, that’s a +5 overall. 39% had a neutral opinion or none at all.

Herrell’s job is more straightforward – campaign hard, remind voters where you stand, and try to find those extra votes. She fared about the same, with a +6 overall. 38% of likely voters said they have a favorable impression of Herrell, and 32% said their opinion of Herrell was unfavorable. Those higher ratings mean people already know where she stands.

With this being her fourth go at the office, fewer people have a neutral impression or no opinion — that number is at 31%.

Click here for the full survey.